After New Hampshire

Political pros and junkies like myself are looking at the results of yesterday's New Hampshire primary the way we look over a town hit by a twister: What just hit us? Sifting through the debris of confident predictions (my own included) that a second Obama win would signal the end of the Clinton dynasty, observers of this amazing race must now confront again the reality that swing voters frequently don't base their decisions on the comparative values of competing candidates. They make their decisions on far more fickle things.

How else may we consider the role of Hillary Clinton's emotional appeal in the past few days? During the last debate before the polls opened, one questioner sought Clinton's response to those who found her less "likable" than Barrack Obama. In a nearly perfect display of pathos, Clinton responded, "Well that hurts my feelings . . . But I'll try to go on." That latter phrase dripped with particular brilliance, leavened as it was with just the right amount of theatricality. Clinton spoke on at least two levels, to those who genuinely feel for her and for those who feel that this entire campaign is nothing less than surreal.

Then came the moment that many people believe turned the entire race around, when Clinton teared up in a New Hampshire diner after being asked how she endures the barbs of this campaign. Employing a wistful tone, she responded, "You know, I have so many opportunities from this country, I just don't want to see us fall backwards . . . This is very personal for me, it's not just political." I remember watching that scene a couple of times and finding the whole package a little to convenient. I should have known better, though, when Jenny saw this moment and responded that she'd never seen that side of the candidate. My wife, a conservative voter who could hardly spare a kind word for Hillary Clinton, was moved. I should have recognized right then that things had changed.

Sure enough, Hillary Clinton beat every expectation, even those held by her in-house master strategist Bill Clinton. Studying the flow and beats of last night's speeches, it's clear that Hillary gave a fine concession speech and Barack delivered an outstanding victory speech, except for the minor details that Hillary won and Barack was forced to settle for second. These two, more than all the rest, were clearly stunned by what happened.

So now we survey the terrain of an entirely new election cycle. Obama and Clinton are poised to fight on for weeks, if not months. John McCain, the guy who claims to be "older than dirt," who has "more scars than Frankenstein," has added his own back-from-the-dead tale to this race. And Michael Bloomberg, billionaire New York City mayor, contemplates a third-party run for the White House that promises still more drama. I'm a little bummed that I was so wrong about last night, but I'm still having a great time watching this fascinating political season.

At 80% Clinton Finds Her Own Voice

Thanking her supporters, Hillary Clinton marks a turn in her political persona:

I want especially to thank New Hampshire. Over the last week I listened to you, and in the process I found my own voice.

I felt like we all spoke from our hearts and I am so gratified that you responded. Now together let's give America the kind of comeback that New Hampshire has just given me.

It's likely that politicos for and against Hillary Clinton will remember yesterday's "tearful moment" as the time when all expectations for this race were scrambled yet again. But these speeches were memorable in their own rights.

What an amazing night of political theater.

At 70% Obama Concedes

CNN has now projected that Hillary Clinton will win New Hampshire. This is a simply remarkable achievement for her campaign, given that virtually every poll coming into this day place her way behind Obama. The day was filled with stories of her imminent meltdown, her plans to fire her campaign manager, maybe even her plans to exit the race early. But now, unexpectedly, we find Obama being forced to concede this battle and plan for a long war:

We know the battle ahead will be long. But always remember that no matter what obstacles stand in our way, nothing can stand in the way of the power of millions of voices calling for change. We have been told we cannot do this by a course of cynics. And they will only grow louder and more dissonant in the weeks and months to come. We've been asked to pause for a reality check; we've been warned against offering the people of this nation false hope. But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.

For when we have faced down impossible odds, when we've been told we're not ready, or that we shouldn't try, or that we can't, generations of Americans have responded with a simple creed that sums up the spirit up a people. Yes we can. Yes we can. Yes we can.

Win or lose, this guy is the best political orator in a generation.

At 68% the Associated Press Calls for Hillary Clinton

At 68% of votes counted, the AP has called for Hillary Clinton. Once again, we will hear that hallowed phrase, The Comeback Kid. While the big college towns have still not reported, Clinton's lead has stretched to 40-36%.

At 60% Edwards Takes Third

As she's introducing John Edwards, who's walking away from New Hampshire with about 17%, Elizabeth Edwards is referencing that damned mill again. You've got to wonder whether anyone in the Edwards campaign has ever said, Look, maybe we should stop talking about the mill. No single person in the country hasn't heard this story. Oh well. Now they're pumping in John Mellencamp's "This is Our Country," and the candidate is making the best of winning third place.

At 55% I-Reporters Show Off

Watching CNN's coverage of the New Hampshire results (still 39% to 37%, Clinton vs. Obama): They've got this goofy telestrator that depicts "I-Reporters" submitted from viewers that allows talking heads to sift through digital images of emailed photos, shrinking and enlarging them by pinching and spreading fingers. The effect results in visual noise, conveying no important content. But it's pretty cool anyway.

At 50% the Race Becomes Interesting

Wow, what a race. I never would have guessed how close this race would be between Obama and Clinton in New Hampshire. At 50% of votes cast, Clinton stands at 39%; Obama trails at 37%. Right now, analysts are pointing to Clinton's winning of the women's vote and Obama's winning of the youth vote. Now we await the numbers from the college towns. Either way, this race seems to have gotten much tighter than anyone would have guessed.